Why Ruto would relish Raila’s political exit for top AU job

ODM party leader Raila Odinga. PHOTO | COURTESY

Azimio coalition flag bearer and ODM party leader Raila Odinga is charting a new course away from national politics in Kenya.

Raila, who controversially lost his fifth stab at the presidency in the August 9, 2022 General Election to United Democratic Alliance (UDA) candidate William Ruto, has now set his eyes on a coveted continental prize.

The veteran opposition politician on Thursday, February 15, officially declared his interest in the African Union (AU) Commission chairmanship at a press conference in Nairobi.

He said he had consulted widely on the issue and felt ready, prepared and competent to serve in that position, as this will not be the first time he will be making himself available to serve in the premier continental body. He was until early last year the AU High Representative for Infrastructure.

Interestingly, he was accompanied at the press conference by former Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo. A close friend and confidante of the Kenyan opposition leader, retired General Obasanjo mediated between President Ruto and Raila following the hotly disputed presidential election.

Raila said: “Serving as the AU High Representative for Infrastructure gave me the advantage of learning about each African country. I believe by working together, we can emancipate Africa.”

Interestingly, this came just a few weeks after Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi, who also holds the Foreign Affairs portfolio, hinted during a function in Raila’s Bondo rural home that something was cooking that would make the opposition chief’s supporters happy.

He did not disclose what it was, fuelling speculation that another “handshake” could be in the making.

Following his defeat by Uhuru Kenyatta in the 2017 presidential election, the two men reconciled and emerged from a meeting at Uhuru’s then office, Harambee House, in downtown Nairobi for a hearty handshake. This erased the tension leading to them working closely together.

In 2022 presidential poll, Uhuru backed Raila against his own estranged deputy, Ruto, who sneaked to power with a thin 200,000 votes margin out of the 14 million Kenyans who cast their ballots.

It has now emerged that President Ruto is backing Raila’s bid for the AU Commission chairmanship, of course for selfish interest. His exit from the national political scene will make it much easier for President Ruto to win his second and final five-year term in the 2027 elections.

As the Foreign minister, Mudavadi has reportedly been lately shuttling around the continent, including visiting Ethiopia, which hosts the AU headquarters to drum up support for Raila.

The former Nigerian President, who has become an influential adviser in continental affairs, has officially endorsed Raila for the big job.

He argued that the time has come for someone from eastern Africa to head the AU Commission and strongly believes that Raila fits the bill.

“We need a person with experience, a person who understands the situation we are in and a person who comes from a background that can make a difference,” Obasanjo said.

The African Union Commission is the AU Secretariat, whose headquarters is in Addis Ababa, is responsible for the day-to- day running of the union.

Raila served as AU High Representative for Infrastructure Development in Africa between 2018 and February last year, when he quit, sparking some controversy. It was alleged then that President Ruto had lobbied for his removal from the position.

The current chairperson is former Chad Prime Minister Moussa Faki, who is serving his final term in office, having been re-elected on February 2, 2021.

Countries have until May 2024 to submit the names of their preferred candidates.
Raila’s running mate in the 2022 presidential election, Kalonzo Musyoka, who could also directly benefit, has supported the move.

He said: “As Azimio (coalition) we endorse Raila for the (AU Commission) chairperson following Thursday’s public announcement. We call upon our compatriots to give support to Odinga.”

Kalonzo, the Wiper Party leader, was accompanied by other Azimio coalition leaders, Narc Kenya’s Martha Karua, DAP-K boss Eugene Wamalwa, PNU leader Peter Munya and Roots Party leader George Wajackoyah.

Speaking in Kalonzo’s Kitui County recently, Raila said he has no problem with endorsing the Wiper Party leader for the 2027 presidential election. However, he said he was still active in the national political arena.

President Ruto’s biggest headache has been Raila’s ability to mobilise anti-government demonstrations. During last year’s protests, which claimed a number of lives, and destroyed property in Nairobi and other parts of the country, the Kenya Kwanza alliance administration was shaken.

This is what led to the bipartisan National Dialogue Committee (Nadco) talks that came up with recommendations on reconstituting the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC).

The commission has been run by a secretariat since January last year when then chairman Wafula Chebukati and two commissioners retired. Several others had resigned following the bitter fallout over the August 22 presidential election results that split the IEBC down the middle.

It will be interesting to see how the former Prime Minister and long-serving MP for Lang’ata in Nairobi, goes about setting himself up for the next stage in his national and continental leadership.

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